Yes

The most severe drought in recent memory occurred in 2000, impacting around 300,000 individuals.

As Armenia’s National Action Program of Adaptation to Climate Change highlights, high frequency and magnitude of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena are characteristic for Armenia, which trigger droughts.

Yes

Armenia, monitored by the National Survey for Seismic Protection (NSSP), experiences an average of 15 seismic events monthly. While earthquakes could potentially affect any part of the country, historical patterns have revealed major incidents primarily in the northern region, like the Spitak earthquake in 1988, and in the southern region, with significant tremors occurring in the late 1960s in Syunik.

The seismic hazard map, a crucial component of Armenia's risk management strategy, is informed by the Hazard Matrix developed by the Armenian Rescue Services (ARS) and the State Academy of Crisis Management (SACM) in 2016. This matrix categorizes ten regions (marzes) and Yerevan city by seismic risk levels, ranking them from zero (no risk) to one (high risk). It is a foundational tool for understanding and mitigating earthquake threats, indicating Yerevan and Shirak as zones with the highest risk levels, each scoring 1.0 on the earthquake risk scale. This aligns with concerns that a major earthquake in Yerevan could lead to high casualties, considering the prevalent construction vulnerabilities.

The NSSP's monitoring capabilities extend to providing detailed assessments of potential damage and casualties for settlements across Armenia. This was particularly relevant in 2023, when a notable surge in seismic activity was recorded, with 69 earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 or higher detected within a 300-kilometer radius of Armenia. Of these, the most potent tremor registered a magnitude of 5.9.

Furthermore, data from earthquaketrack.com shows that within the past year, Armenia experienced 19 earthquakes with a magnitude of 1.5 or greater. The most significant earthquake in the last decade occurred on February 23, with a magnitude of 6.0, striking approximately 188 km south of Yerevan at a shallow depth of 10 km.

No

in January 2020, Armenia, like many other countries, has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The most recent significant wave of COVID-19 in Armenia occurred in the early months of 2023. During this period, there was a notable increase in cases and deaths. By April 13, 2024, the country had reported a total of 451,831 cases and 8,777 deaths, with 435,162 recoveries.

Yes

Armenia is highly vulnerable to climate change and desertification, as stated in its National Action Program. Projections suggest a further rise of 4.7°C in temperatures and an 8.3% decrease in precipitation by 2100. These changes will impact natural systems, water resources, agriculture, health, and infrastructure. Climate experts note that Armenia's temperature increase, and precipitation decrease exceed the global average.

yes

Although Armenia does not have abundant flowing surface water, more than 50 percent of annual discharge occurs during spring due to snow melting. This can increase water volume in some river basins tenfold, and can also trigger seasonal flooding, particularly in the Araks, Hrazdan, and Aghstev river basins (World Bank 2009). According to experts, heavy rains will become more frequent in the spring, which cause damage and can result in floods (evnreport).

In May 2024, torrential rains have swollen rivers in the northern Armenian provinces of Lori and Tavush, killing at least four people in the country's worst flooding in decades. A bridge across the Debed River in the town of Alaverdi has collapsed. Hundreds of people have been evacuated in the region, which has also seen water, electricity, and gas services disrupted. The flooding has also affected transport connections with neighboring Georgia as well as a part of the railway was destroyed.

No

yes

Armenia is also prone to landslides that can be secondary effects of earthquakes or heavy precipitation.

Back in October 2011, a landslide occurred on the highway through Debed river gorge, a critical transport link between Armenia and Georgia. This incident was preceded by a traffic jam caused by a truck crash, leading to vibrations that officials suggest triggered the landslide. Reportedly, up to 35 vehicles were buried under the landslide. The highway closure affects crucial transport routes, disrupting logistics between Armenia and Georgia.

No

No

No

No

Yes

Civil strife looms over Armenia following the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and subsequent population exile in September 2023. This displacement has sparked social and economic tensions, exacerbating existing grievances and potentially fuelling unrest. Political dissatisfaction, alongside with sophisticated relationship between authorities and opposition, make the internal situation fragile and exposed to political and civil turbulences.

For this assessment, it has been decided to consider it a nation-wide problem.

Another wave of protests erupted in early May 2024, against the backdrop of delimiting the international borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This process received mixed reactions from Armenian society, as many doubted that Azerbaijan would reciprocate by withdrawing its troops after Armenia pulled back from certain border sections.

On May 9, the protests escalated when Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, the leader of the protest, demanded that Prime Minister Pashinyan resign within the hour, a call that was ignored by the government. The rally on May 9 is considered the largest protest since 2018, when Nikol Pashinyan came to power amid a wave of demonstrations.

At the time of developing this assessment, protests were still ongoing, marked by acts of peaceful disobedience.

yes

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians until 2023.

In late 2020, the large-scale Second Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in thousands of casualties and a significant Azerbaijani victory. An armistice was established by a tripartite ceasefire agreement on November 10, resulting in Azerbaijan regaining all of the occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh as well as capturing one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. Ceasefire violations in Nagorno-Karabakh and on the Armenian–Azerbaijani border continued following the 2020 war. Azerbaijan began blockading Artsakh in December 2022, and launched a large-scale military offensive in September 2023, resulting in the surrender of the Artsakh authorities. Most ethnic Armenians fled,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_conflict  and Artsakh was officially dissolved on 1 January 2024.

Besides, after the 44-day war in 2020, the rise of tension and increase of deadly armed incidents between AR and AZ were observed on the international borders as well.

No

yes

According to the International Rescue Committee (IRC), Since the escalation in Sep 2023 of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Over 101,000 refugees fled their homes (the entire ethnic Armenian population).

During the conflicts with Azerbaijan the international community provided support to 350,000 Armenian refugees from Armenian areas near the border with Azerbaijan, Karabakh itself, ethnic Armenians living in Baku and, to some extent, other towns in Azerbaijan. It also provided support to 500,000 Azeri refugees in Karabakh.

No

yes

The country’s sole nuclear power station is located at METZAMOR, approximately 30 km west of Yerevan. According to an official assessment, a major contamination threat following an accident could result in up to 180,000 of the population of a surrounding area within a radius of 16 km being affected. Seismic activity in the area is monitored continuously by NSSP. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the nuclear power plant is located in an area identified as a High-risk hazard for earthquake probability.

If seismic activity were to damage the power station, the resulting consequences would be disastrous. Depending on wind direction, there might be a necessity to evacuate the entire population of Yerevan. The main international airport's accessibility and the only rail connection with Georgia would suffer significant disruption.

From October to March

The northern and southern parts of the country, which provide the sole communication routes to Georgia and Iran are mountainous with many winding passes.

Weather conditions in these areas during the winter months (late October to the end of March) can result in difficult vehicular traffic, with snow, ice and fog common on high passes.

Springtime

The flooding in May 2024 has also affected transport connections with neighboring Georgia as well as a part of the railway was destroyed.

Springtim

The flooding in May 2024 destroyed part of the railway

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

From October to March

-Economic Impact: Winter reduces agricultural production, lowering demand for perishable storage but increasing it for preserved goods. Businesses stockpile supplies for colder months, altering storage needs.

-Social Impact: Rural areas may face labor shortages as people seek indoor activities or alternative income, impacting storage manpower availability.

-Climate-related Impact: Heavy snowfall hinders access to storage facilities, challenging transportation and operations. Extreme cold may necessitate extra insulation or heating for stored goods.

-Economic Impact: Increased agricultural production during the summer harvest spikes demand for storage space to store fresh produce.

-Social Impact: Rural areas face labor shortages for storage operations as people prioritize fieldwork and harvesting. Also, a significant part of the male population, particularly in the provinces, leaves to work in Russia

-Climate-related Impact: High temperatures hasten perishable goods' decay, requiring efficient cooling and ventilation in storage. Drought-prone regions may suffer water scarcity, affecting irrigation and crop yields, altering storage needs.

From October to March

-Economic Impact: Cold weather may decrease overall economic activity, affecting demand for handling services. However, indoor handling activities like repackaging may increase as businesses prepare for reduced harvests.

-Social Impact: Rural areas may lack labor for handling tasks due to indoor employment preferences or transportation issues caused by snow and ice.

-Climate-related Impact: Heavy snowfall hampers goods transportation, causing delays in handling. Cold temperatures may require special handling for sensitive commodities.

-Economic Impact: Summer, especially during harvest, boosts agricultural activity, increasing demand for handling services.

-Social Impact: In rural areas, where agricultural activities are prevalent, there may be a temporary surge in the availability of labor for handling tasks as individuals engage in harvesting and post-harvest activities.

-Climate-related Impact: High temperatures challenge perishable goods handling, requiring efficient cooling.